迷迭香
2007-12-23 04:02:40 UTC
問一下
最後一段我居然看不懂他的意思
是說 exchange rate 這個假設不能拿來做 sensitivity analysis 的 factor 嗎???
============================================================================
You may notice that although some of the assumptions are known with certainty
(e.g., one-time set-up cost), other assumptions may be open to question (e.g.,
exchange rate, cost of borrowing, etc.). A sensitivity analysis might better
identify some of the key drivers of cash-flow. For example, if energy costs go
up by W% will that make the project no longer viable? Perform such a
sensitivity analysis, being careful to address the following questions:
‧ Which of the uncertain assumptions seem to be most critical?
‧ When an assumption is changed, what (roughly) is the directional effect on
average quarter-end cash-flow after 20 years?
‧ What is the range for key assumptions that make the project viable?
‧ Are there certain combinations of assumptions that should be varied
simultaneously? In other words, are there any interaction effects?
‧ Which of the base assumption values do you feel are most questionable, and
how does your answer to this question affect the amount of attention you
might give this assumption in stress testing?
In conducting the above analysis, focus especially on assumption movements
that produce adverse outcomes, since this is what you would like to protect
against.
--- 接著就是這一段看不懂>"< --
The spreadsheet xxx.xls has been constructed so that, with the exception of
the exchange rate, when an assumption is changed, the new value is
immediately used and remains constant at that level over the projection
period. For the exchange rate, the value is increased or decreased linearly
over the next five years from the current value of 1.04 to the selected value.
After that time, the exchange rate is held fixed at the selected value.
=============================================================================
--
[1;30;40m夫兵者不祥之器物或惡之故有道者不處君子居則貴左用兵則貴右兵者不祥之器非君子[m
[1;30m之器不得已[37m[30m而用之恬淡為上勝而不美而美之者是樂殺人夫樂殺人者則不可得志於天下
[m[1;30m矣吉事尚左凶事尚右偏將軍居左上將軍居右言以喪禮處之殺人之眾以哀悲泣之戰勝以[m
[1;30m喪禮處之道常[37m無名[30m樸雖小天下莫能臣侯王若能守之萬物將自賓天地相合以降甘露民莫[m
[1;30m之令而自均始制有名名亦既有夫亦將知止知[37m220-130-220-235.HINET-IP.hinet.net[30m海[m
最後一段我居然看不懂他的意思
是說 exchange rate 這個假設不能拿來做 sensitivity analysis 的 factor 嗎???
============================================================================
You may notice that although some of the assumptions are known with certainty
(e.g., one-time set-up cost), other assumptions may be open to question (e.g.,
exchange rate, cost of borrowing, etc.). A sensitivity analysis might better
identify some of the key drivers of cash-flow. For example, if energy costs go
up by W% will that make the project no longer viable? Perform such a
sensitivity analysis, being careful to address the following questions:
‧ Which of the uncertain assumptions seem to be most critical?
‧ When an assumption is changed, what (roughly) is the directional effect on
average quarter-end cash-flow after 20 years?
‧ What is the range for key assumptions that make the project viable?
‧ Are there certain combinations of assumptions that should be varied
simultaneously? In other words, are there any interaction effects?
‧ Which of the base assumption values do you feel are most questionable, and
how does your answer to this question affect the amount of attention you
might give this assumption in stress testing?
In conducting the above analysis, focus especially on assumption movements
that produce adverse outcomes, since this is what you would like to protect
against.
--- 接著就是這一段看不懂>"< --
The spreadsheet xxx.xls has been constructed so that, with the exception of
the exchange rate, when an assumption is changed, the new value is
immediately used and remains constant at that level over the projection
period. For the exchange rate, the value is increased or decreased linearly
over the next five years from the current value of 1.04 to the selected value.
After that time, the exchange rate is held fixed at the selected value.
=============================================================================
--
[1;30;40m夫兵者不祥之器物或惡之故有道者不處君子居則貴左用兵則貴右兵者不祥之器非君子[m
[1;30m之器不得已[37m[30m而用之恬淡為上勝而不美而美之者是樂殺人夫樂殺人者則不可得志於天下
[m[1;30m矣吉事尚左凶事尚右偏將軍居左上將軍居右言以喪禮處之殺人之眾以哀悲泣之戰勝以[m
[1;30m喪禮處之道常[37m無名[30m樸雖小天下莫能臣侯王若能守之萬物將自賓天地相合以降甘露民莫[m
[1;30m之令而自均始制有名名亦既有夫亦將知止知[37m220-130-220-235.HINET-IP.hinet.net[30m海[m